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Burnley logo
Premier League | Gameweek 5
Sep 18, 2021 at 3pm UK
Turf Moor
Arsenal logo

Burnley
0 - 1
Arsenal


Barnes (19'), Westwood (29')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Odegaard (30')
Tavares (90+2')

Preview: Burnley vs. Arsenal - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Arsenal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Arsenal will endeavour to record back-to-back wins in the Premier League when they travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley on Saturday afternoon.

Mikel Arteta's side scraped a 1-0 victory over Norwich City in gameweek four, whereas Burnley's winless start continued with a 3-1 defeat at Everton.


Match preview

Andros Townsend scores for Everton against Burnley in the Premier League on September 13, 2021© Reuters

Sean Dyche's Burnley became the next victims of an Andros Townsend thunderbolt at Goodison Park on Monday night, but for a short while, the Clarets seemed set for a joyous evening on Merseyside after Ben Mee's header broke the deadlock in the 53rd minute.

However, Michael Keane soon rose highest to equalise against his former club before Townsend's unstoppable 30-yard effort sailed into the top corner of the net, and Demarai Gray would cap off a six-minute flurry of goals for the Toffees to condemn Burnley to a third defeat from four games.

The Clarets' commitment to retaining the same core of players and their top-flight status on a limited budget has been admirable for the past few years, but with only one point to boast from a possible 12 so far, fears of another relegation battle are looming.

Dyche's side have already dropped into the bottom three at this early stage of the season and have conceded eight goals in their four games - a far cry from their previously resilient defensive nature - and an EFL Cup penalty shootout win over Newcastle United is all that they have had to cheer so far.

Furthermore, Burnley welcome Arsenal to Turf Moor having failed to win any of their last 12 Premier League games on home soil - losing five of their last six - but the Gunners are not exactly a side full of unbridled confidence either.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta gives instructions to his players on September 11, 2021© Reuters

How Arsenal only managed to find the back of the net once against Norwich is beyond comprehension to some Gooners, and the Canaries did have their moments, but Mikel Arteta's side finally got off the mark for the season in a 1-0 triumph at the Emirates.

Despite having a total of 30 shots on the day - 17 of which were on target - the Gunners could only find the back of the net when Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang tapped home from a goalmouth scramble, but Arteta's men are finally off the mark for the Premier League season at the fourth attempt.

Arsenal have now lifted themselves off the foot of the table and out of the relegation zone for the time being, and as their rivals' European fatigue kicks in from this week's continental matches, the Gunners will now seek to make their week's worth of rest count.

However, Brentford and Manchester City masterclasses means that the Gunners travel to Turf Moor having conceded seven goals and scored none on the road so far, and Gunners fans will not need reminding how a comical error from Granit Xhaka saw Burnley rescue a 1-1 draw in this fixture last season.

The Clarets also prevailed 1-0 at the Emirates last term in one of the few fixtures that supporters were allowed to attend, but Burnley have not beaten Arsenal at home in the league since the 1973-74 season.

Burnley Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L

Burnley form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L

Arsenal Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W

Arsenal form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on September 11, 2021© Reuters

New Burnley arrival Nathan Collins could be in contention to feature against Arsenal despite missing out against Everton, while the home crowd will also hope to see Maxwel Cornet line up from the first whistle.

Dale Stephens, Kevin Long and Connor Roberts are unlikely to be fit for the visit of the Gunners, while Collins is unlikely to force his way in over Ben Mee or James Tarkowski even if he is ready to feature.

Dyche may be tempted to reintroduce Jack Cork for greater midfield stability this weekend, but an unchanged lineup may take to the field from the first whistle, barring the possible inclusion of Cornet.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have confirmed that Rob Holding and Mohamed Elneny will miss out once more, while Xhaka serves the second of a three-game suspension for his red card against Man City.

Emile Smith Rowe and Thomas Partey were only fit enough for substitute appearances against Norwich, but the influential duo ought to be reintroduced here over Nicolas Pepe and Ainsley Maitland-Niles.

Arteta also has a big decision to make in between the sticks, but there is no reason for the Gunners boss to drop Aaron Ramsdale after he kept a clean sheet in his Premier League debut for the club.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Mee, Tarkowski, Cornet; Gudmundsson, Westwood, Brownhill, McNeil; Wood, Barnes

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Tomiyasu, White, Gabriel, Tierney; Partey, Lokonga; Saka, Odegaard, Smith Rowe; Aubameyang


SM words green background

We say: Burnley 0-2 Arsenal

Arsenal's profligacy against Norwich could have very easily cost them on another day, but with three points under their belts and their injury problems finally easing, they should travel to Turf Moor with a renewed sense of confidence.

Burnley may have garnered four points from two clashes with the Gunners last term, but we are struggling to see the out-of-form Clarets repeating the same trick this time around and are backing Arsenal to make it back-to-back wins in the top flight.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 48.72%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 24.28%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.76%) and 1-2 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-0 (8.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Arsenal in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Burnley vs Arsenal

Burnley
15.4%
Draw
16.3%
Arsenal
68.3%
344
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