Which Premier League teams have the toughest run-ins?

We are at the home straight. The business end of the season. The run-in. We are as close as we are going to get to every team having 10 games left (damn you, rearranged Chelsea v Tottenham match), so this is as good a time as any to compare the relative difficulty of each side’s run-in.

This is where Opta’s power rankings come in handy. The ranking system assigns a score on a scale between zero (the worst team in the world) and 100 (Manchester City) to rate 13,000 teams against each other. We can use the ranking of each team’s opponents to assign a difficulty rating to each team’s remaining fixtures.

We’ve taken the average ranking of each Premier League team’s 10 remaining opponents to see who has the easiest run-in, and who faces the biggest challenge in the season’s final couple of months. A higher average rating means a harder run-in; a lower rating signals an easier schedule.

To make our findings slightly more convenient, uniform and fair for our comparison, we have disregarded the aforementioned Chelsea v Tottenham game, which was postponed a few weeks ago due to Chelsea’s involvement in the League Cup final, and is yet to be given a new date. So, for the purposes of this exercise, think of that match as a free hit for both teams; a chance to gain a bonus point or three on top of anything they get from their other 10 games, but very much not a guarantee of anything more.

And yes, before you shout at us, we’re aware the return fixture was not just a “free hit” – Chelsea’s bizarre 4-1 win where Spurs had two players sent off and lost two more to serious injuries which sparked one of their worst runs of form in recent history. But it’s neater this way.

The title race

Arsenal face a challenge if they are to hold on to their ever-so-slender lead at the top of the Premier League table. With 10 rounds of fixtures remaining, they top the pile on goal difference, having won eight games in a row by an astonishing aggregate score of 33-4 to overtake Liverpool and Manchester City.

However, they’ll need to keep up their recent form and remain at their very best to stay top, with our model suggesting they have the most difficult run-in of the three title contenders. Mikel Arteta’s side still face difficult trips to Manchester City, Tottenham and Manchester United, as well as potential banana skins at home to Chelsea and Aston Villa and on the road against Brighton and Wolves.

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Arsenal face the fifth-most difficult run-in of the 20 Premier League teams. Given the rate the top three are picking up points, Arsenal will need 10 strong performances to hold off their title rivals.

While neither City nor Liverpool have a particularly easy run-in, both have more favourable schedules. City’s is slightly more difficult than Liverpool’s, largely because of their home game against Arsenal at the end of the month, as well as a trip to Tottenham.

Liverpool have to go to rivals Everton and Manchester United, both of whom will be desperate to stop them winning the title, but otherwise their biggest challenges are a home game against Tottenham and a trip to Villa Park on the penultimate day of the season.

The Opta supercomputer is still backing City to win the league but the relative difficulty of the three teams’ remaining fixtures helps put the title race into perspective.

The top-four race

We are still waiting to see if the Premier League will earn a fifth spot in next season’s Champions League. If only four clubs make it, it will almost certainly be a fight between Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester United for that one remaining place.

Villa are fourth, two points above Spurs (who have a game in hand), but they have the second-most difficult run-in of all 20 Premier League teams, so there are plenty of opportunities for them to slip up. They face trips to City, Arsenal, West Ham and Brighton, as well as home games against Liverpool, Chelsea and Wolves. Villa do not have any games left against a team in the current bottom five, with six of their remaining games against top-half teams.

Their form against teams in the top half of the table is particularly bad, too, having lost their last four in a row since home wins over Arsenal and City in December. Their 4-0 defeat at home to top-four rivals Tottenham last week did not bode well for what is to come.

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Spurs have a slightly easier run-in, though theirs is still the eighth most difficult in the league. A brutal run towards the end of the season – when they play Newcastle, City, Arsenal and Liverpool – could make or break their top-four chances.

Manchester United have by far the simplest task of the Champions League-chasing teams, with Liverpool and Arsenal – both at home – the only teams in the current top seven that they have left. The problem for United is that they have eight points to make up to Villa in fourth, but at least the fixture list is kind.

The relegation battle

Realistically, Sheffield United and Burnley are down. They are both 10 points adrift of safety with 10 games to go; even an easy fixture list won’t save them now. Burnley have the sixth-easiest run-in and don’t have to play any of the top three, but it’s frankly impossible to see them picking up the 20-odd points they will need. The task for Sheffield United is even greater as they have a tougher fixture list.

So, that leaves one relegation spot remaining, and four – or possibly five – teams fighting for survival. Luton, Nottingham Forest, Everton and Brentford are all very much in the relegation battle. Crystal Palace, currently eight points clear of the drop zone, are surely safe, even if they have the most difficult run-in of any team in the bottom half of the table.

Luton look like they could be in trouble after their dramatic 4-3 defeat at Bournemouth on Wednesday. When leading 3-0 at half-time, they might have been confident of pulling off a great escape, but they became the third team in history to lose a Premier League game after leading by three goals at the break, and are now staring at the very real possibility of heading straight back to the second tier.

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With visits to Tottenham, Arsenal and City, Rob Edwards’ side face the sixth-most difficult run-in in the entire Premier League. Edwards will likely be focusing his attentions on more winnable crunch fixtures at home to Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Brentford and Everton.

Things look even bleaker for Luton. Brentford, Forest and Everton face the easiest, fourth-easiest and fifth-easiest run-ins, respectively, according to our model. They all have to play all three of the promoted sides, so there will be a huge amount of pressure on those matches against Luton. Luton’s hopes may ultimately hinge on whether Forest end up, like Everton, being given a points deduction.