Hindsight, they say, is the predictive analyst's best friend. To make a prediction, we collect data (the past), look for trends, and attempt to apply them to the future. When we are wrong (and when we are right) we go back to our model and revise it based on our new data. The stat-du-jour is xG: Expected Goals. Expected goals looks at all shots in the past, determines what percent of them have been scored from what positions and assigns a numeric value to that shot. In simplest terms, shots inside the 6 yard box, for example, are scored at about a 40% rate. Shots outside the 18 yard box about 3%. From there you can get more finely detailed with the analysis and make the stats a little more...
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